NIPPED IN THE BUD

Wednesday 5, 2020 2:00 PM By Best Bets

The Rosebud, as its name suggests, was designed as the first step on the road to glory in Sydney’s richest spring three-year-old race, the Golden Rose.

It hasn’t quite worked out that way. In fact, if you’re having an advance bet on the Golden Rose history suggests you can put the pen through Saturday’s entire field.

Not only has no horse completed the Rosebud-Golden Rose double, no Golden Rose winner has started in the Rosebud (which first appeared on the calendar in 2006 as the Men of League Charity Rosebud Quality).

Rosebud winners Desuetude (2008), Scissor Kick (2014), Sebring Sun (2015) and Menari (2017) have managed minor placings in the Golden Rose.

For their part, the bookmakers seem to be on to the fact that it’s unlikely the Rose winner will be stepping out at Rosehill on Saturday. Of the top 18 three-year-olds in the Golden Rose market, only one – $26 chance Ole Kirk – is in Saturday’s Rosebud.

Given modern training trends, it seems the winner of a $1 million three-year-old Group 1 over 1400 metres in late September is unlikely to be up and about in the middle of winter.

The ATC acknowledged as much when the Rosebud Prelude, for late-season two-year-olds over 1000 metres at Randwick in July, was discontinued after one running (in 2018).

There is at least one aspect in which the Rosebud is an accurate predictor of the Golden Rose – a filly almost never wins it.

It’s well known that Forensics is the only filly to have won the Rose in its 15-year history, and that year it was run in autumn because of the equine influenza outbreak.

She’s a Fox (2012) is the only filly to win the Rosebud in its 13 years.

There is just one filly – Shaik – in Saturday’s 11-horse field.