Superb placement is likely to see Sheza Alibi start this Saturday as the shortest-priced favourite for the Doncaster Mile since Winx.

Winx started (and won) at $1.80 in 2016. Going into the Doncaster she was already eight races into her winning streak, and a five-time Group 1 winner.

Having scored three of those major wins before the Doncaster weights were allocated, she was given 56.5kg — half a kilo under weight-for-age for a four-year-old mare.

Sheza Alibi has just 49kg on Saturday, 5.5kg under weight-for-age for a three-year-old filly. When the Doncaster weights were published on February 23 she was a mere Group 2 winner.

She has since corrected the record by winning the Group 1 set-weights Randwick Guineas, thus earning ballot-free entry into the Doncaster but not copping a penalty.

Odds-on favourites (and winning favourites) aren’t common in the Doncaster — which isn’t surprising given it’s a 20-runner 1600-metre handicap, usually with a wide spread of weights and often run on a wet track.

Since Winx, no Doncaster runner has started at less than $3.20. And the only winning favourite has been Mr Brightside ($6), defending his title in 2023. In fact, none of the other favourites in those nine years has run a place.

Apart from Winx, the only winning odds-on favourite in the 160-year history of the Doncaster is Valicare at the same price (4-5, i.e. $1.80), 100 years ago.

Two winners have started at 10-9 ($2.11) including Sunline in 1999 — coincidentally the last filly to win it.

The Doncaster hasn’t been a bad race for fillies over its history (11 have won it, including the aforementioned Valicare), but its recent history has been less kind.

Since Sunline, 17 three-year-old fillies have contested the Doncaster for one minor placegetter — Norzita, third in 2013 behind Sacred Falls and Pierro.