With apologies to whoever was writing ads for State of Origin in the 1990s, this Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas is a classic case of state against state, mate against mate.

After watching his colt Warwoven destroy his rivals a fortnight ago in the Golden Rose, Bjorn Baker immediately declared, “I’m looking forward to taking on my old mate Trent …”

The Trent in question is Busuttin, who in partnership with Natalie Young trains Victoria’s leading Guineas contender, Blind Raise.

Baker and Busuttin – Kiwi expats of a similar age, each with a prolific Group 1-winning trainer for a father – dominate the market for Saturday’s classic, with the prices implying a 57-percent chance that either Warwoven or Blind Raise will win it.

Warwoven is the favourite, a state of affairs supported by recent history.

Comparisons between Sydney and Melbourne three-year-olds in the Caulfield Guineas are clouded by the fact that the bigger stables these days have bases in both cities.

Look in the racebook for the last two years, for example, and you’ll find both winners – Private Life and Autumn Boy – were trained by Chris Waller at Flemington, even though Autumn Boy had both his lead-up runs in Sydney.

The last winner without a foot in both camps was Super Seth (2019), who did all his lead-up racing in Melbourne.

What is undeniable, though, is that the Golden Rose (as won by Warwoven) is often the right form. In 11 of the 23 years since the Golden Rose was established, the Caulfield Guineas winner has come through it.

Autumn Boy was the first Caulfield Guineas winner to come from outside the top five in the Golden Rose – he’d finished seventh (caught four wide the trip).

The Golden Rose winner’s record in the Guineas is a healthy 12: 3-2-2.