If the market is to be believed, you’ll never guess what’s going to happen at Randwick this Saturday. Chris Waller is going to win the Winx Stakes — with a mare!

Yes, the bookmakers concede it’s possible a mare could win who isn’t trained by Waller — the Moody/Coleman-trained Sheza Alibi is second favourite — but Waller’s five mares take up almost 60 per cent of the market.

Victory for any of the five (or for any of his three male Winx Stakes entrants) would see Waller draw level with the great T.J. Smith for the title of winningest trainer in the 103-year history of the Winx (née Warwick) Stakes.

T.J. took 30 years, from Tarien’s first Warwick Stakes in 1953 to Kingston Town’s third in 1982, to rack up his 10 wins. And while Tarien was a mare and would win it again in 1954, Smith’s other eight wins came from males: Tulloch, Sky High (twice), Gay Gauntlet (twice) and Kingston Town (thrice).

If Waller wins again on Saturday, he will have got to 10 in the space of 17 years. And in a mirror image of T.J.’s record in the race, his first winner was a gelding but his eight wins since have come from mares.

Waller started with a bang in 2010. His first three Warwick Stakes runners ran first (Metal Bender), second (Triple Honour) and third (Danleigh).

He had to wait until 2015 for his next winner, Royal Descent. Winx won the next three, followed by Verry Elleegant (2020), Fangirl (2023) and Via Sistina (2024, ’25).

One final fun fact: the winner of the first Group 1 on the calendar has gone on to be named Australia’s horse of the year seven times in the past 11 seasons — eight if Via Sistina gets the nod again at Randwick next Thursday night.